Prediction Markets

How prediction markets work Hide tips Show tips

Back your read on real-world events. In pool markets a winning stake comes back in full, plus its share of what the losing side staked, less a small rake taken from that losing side only (none on a market marked No house fee); in order-book markets each winning share pays 1.00.

Pick an outcome

Choose a market and the result you think will happen - for example YES or NO.

Back it with a stake

In a pool market you stake into your outcome's pot. In an order-book market you buy shares priced 0.01 to 0.99, where the price is the market-implied chance.

Get paid if you are right

In a pool market you get your stake back plus a share of what the losing side staked. In an order-book market each winning share pays 1.00.

How prediction markets work: the complete guide

Propose your own market and earn from its activity if it goes live.

Pool No house fee New Will the Boston Red Sox beat the New York Yankees in the 2026 AL Wild Card Series?
YES NO
Closes in about 18 hours
Pool No house fee New Will the bonus ball in the UK Lotto draw on Saturday 3 October be an odd number?
YES NO
Closes in 5 days
Pool No house fee New Will the red Powerball drawn on Saturday 3 October be an odd number?
YES NO
Closes in 5 days
Pool No house fee New Will the 2026 Nobel Literature laureate's surname begin with a letter from A to K?
YES NO
Closes in 9 days
Pool No house fee New Will the winning pumpkin at Half Moon Bay weigh 2,411 pounds or more?
YES NO
Closes in 13 days
Order book No house fee New Will Bitcoin be above $83,000 at 12:00 UTC on 15 October 2026?
YES NO
Closes in 16 days
Order book New Will the October 2026 mean sunspot number be above 83?
YES NO
Closes in about 1 month
Pool New Will the Democrats win at least 235 House seats and 51 Senate seats at the midterms?
YES NO
Closes in about 1 month
Order book New Will WTI crude settle above 87.99 dollars on 3 November?
YES NO
Closes in about 1 month
Pool New Will New Zealand First win the third-most seats at New Zealand's 7 November election?
YES NO
Closes in about 1 month
Order book New Will Alphabet announce or carry out layoffs before 2027?
YES NO
Closes in 3 months
Order book New Will XRP trade above 2 dollars at any time before 2027?
YES NO
Closes in 3 months
Order book New Will Florida record more than 142 million visitors in 2026?
YES NO
Closes in 4 months
Order book New Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
YES NO
Closes in 6 months
Order book New Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
YES NO
Closes in 6 months